Publications Working papers Discussions


  1. The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low, with Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33. Publication

    The 2008 financial crisis was an unlikely event led us to re-assess the probability of tail events. The knowledge that such an event can happen raises the value of riskless assets for many years.

  2. Investment and Bilateral Insurance, with Emilio Espino and Juan Sanchez, Journal of Economic Theory , Volume 176, July 2018, Pages 311-341. Publication, extended working paper

    Private information may limit insurance possibilities when two agents get together to pool idiosyncratic risk. However, if there is capital accumulation, bilateral insurance possibilities improve because misreporting distorts investment.

Working Papers

  1. The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation, with Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran, R&R at Journal of Political Economy. February 2019 working paper

    The great recession has been more persistent than others because observing an unlikely event led us to re-assess the probability of tail events. This change in beliefs endures long after the event itself has passed.

  2. Explaining Intergenerational Mobility: The Role of Fertility and Family Transfers, with Diego Daruich, R&R at Review of Economics Dynamics April 2019 working paper

    Poor families have more children and transfer fewer resources to them. This suggests that family decisions about fertility and transfers can dampen intergenerational mobility. The model, estimated to the US in the 2000s, implies that a counterfactual flat income-fertility profile would reduce intergenerational persistence by about 7%.

  3. Long-Term Finance and Investment with Frictional Asset Markets, May 2019 working paper

    Trading frictions in financial markets lead to a liquidity spread which increases with maturity and generates an upward sloping yield curve. Hence, trading frictions induce firms to borrow and invest at shorter horizons. Reductions in trading frictions—a new channel of financial development—can promote economic development. We use insights from the theory to measure the slope of liquidity spreads in the data.

  4. Uniform Pricing Within and Across Regions: New Evidence from Argentina, with Diego Daruich. April 2019 working paper

    We create a new database of retail prices in Argentina with over 9 million observations per day. Our main novel finding is that chains, rather than stores, explain most of the price variation. The model shows that consumers prefer uniform to flexible-pricing. We find a one-third larger elasticity of consumption to a regional than an aggregate shock due to the presence of uniform pricing.


  • Beauty Contests and the Term Structure by Martin Ellison and Andreas Tischbirek, Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomics Model August 2018, Discussion

  • Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets by Alessandro Gavazza and Andrea Lanteri, Southern Economic Association November 2018, Discussion